学术研究前沿| An extrapolation non-equigap grey model for operation management

研究成果：An extrapolation non-equigap grey model for operation management

作    者：张哲荣

发表期刊：Journal of Grey System,2023, 35(1): 101-112.

内容简介：Accurate short-term demand forecasting is crucial for the production plandevelopment, but a shorter forecasting period implies that the product demands aremore unstable and, thus, that ascertaining their developing trends is difficult.Therefore, using large historical observations to build forecasting models may notresult in favorable forecasting performance. Prediction methods based on the latestlimited data have thus become vital for maintaining management efficiency andcompetitive advantage. Grey system theory is a technique for resolving thisdifficulty. However, the conventional grey model is designed for time-series datafeaturing equigaps, which limits its application scope. Although in the currentpublished research, scholars have proposed some non-equigap grey models;however, the newest datum is usually weakened to alleviate the randomness of datain these models, which may result in a larger prediction error. To conquer theseshortcomings, this study introduces linear extrapolation to modeling procedures foremphasizing the importance of the newest datum and then proposes an improvednon-equigap grey model. In the experiments of two real cases, the proposed methodexhibits favorable forecasting performance, indicating a feasible solution for smallnon-equigap dataforecasting.

期刊简介：《Journal of Grey System》是由Research Information Ltd所出版的英文期刊。期刊目前被SCIE引文索引数据库收录。

   作者简介：张哲荣博士，陈守仁商学院教授、硕士生导师。主要从事管理科学、生产管理、小数据分析等领域的教学与科研工作。主持福建省社会科学规划项目2项、浙江省自然科学基金项目2项、浙江省钱江人才计划C类项目1项、台湾地区行政院（“国家”科学委员会）项目2项、主持校级项目若干；在SCI/SSCI发表文章31篇，成果获校级科研优秀奖，入选泉州市桐江学者特聘教授、泉州市高层次人才第三层次人才、宁波市3315计划第七梯次长期创新人才。